Free business tool
Revenue & Contribution Scenario Calculator
What could changes in conversion, order value, discounting and returns mean for your online store’s revenue and contribution?
More sales do not always leave more money in the business. A change in conversion can bring additional orders, while discounts, returns and the costs of fulfilling those orders alter what remains. This calculator puts the changes into one scenario so their effects are assessed together.
Enter figures for one completed online-store period, then choose the changes you want to test. The result compares calculated net sales and contribution before and after those assumptions. Contribution here means net sales after the product and variable order costs you enter; it is before acquisition spend and fixed overhead, so it is not net profit.
Start with matching sessions, orders and sales for the same period. Add your per-order costs and return assumptions, then adjust one or more levers. The step-by-step bridge shows where the modeled contribution change comes from. Negative results are possible and useful to investigate.
Online store only · One completed period · Manual figures · Scenario, not a forecast
Trading baseline
Use figures from the same online store and completed period.
These dates identify the period your manual figures cover. They do not project sales forward or change the size of the scenario.
Converted sessions are sessions with a completed purchase, not checkout visits. Use the same online-store period and reporting filters for all counts.
Calculated net salesProduct sales left after discounts and returns value are subtracted. Costs have not yet been deducted. Also called net sales.: $9,720.00. Gross sales − discounts − returns value. Calculated from your entries; not checked against a report.
- Visits that purchasedOnline-store visits that included a completed purchase. This is not the number of people who reached checkout. A visit can include more than one order.
- 1.00%
- Discounts as % of gross salesDiscounts divided by gross sales. For example, 1,200 in discounts on 12,000 in gross sales is a 10% discount rate.
- 10.00%
- Returns as % of discounted salesReturns value divided by sales left after discounts. This is the share of sales value removed, not the share of orders returned.
- 10.00%
- Average order value before deductionsGross product sales divided by the number of orders, before discounts and returns.
- $100.00
Supported input rangesPrototype limits: 1 billion sessions or orders; 1 trillion per period amount or calculated total; 1 million per-order amount; two decimal places for entered money. Order and basket increases are limited to 1,000%. These are calculation limits, not claims that a scenario is realistic.
Editing baseline figures changes the comparison point; it does not model growth. To test the same business at a different scale, scale all period totals together and retain per-order costs.
Variable costs
Contribution uses the entered costs, before acquisition spend and fixed overhead. Enter 0 only when a cost is genuinely zero.
Changes to test
Switch off any change you do not want included.
Baseline 1.00% → scenario 1.50%
Baseline 10.00% → scenario 5.00%
Baseline $100.00 → scenario $120.00 before discounts and returns
Baseline 10.00% → scenario 5.00%
Questions & answers
Understanding the scenario
What does this revenue scenario calculator show?
It compares the online-store figures you enter for a completed period with one modeled set of changes to conversion, discounts, order value and returns. It recalculates those levers in sequence, so the combined result is not a sum of four separate opportunities. The output describes your assumptions, not revenue already lost or a prediction of future sales.
How is contribution different from net sales or net profit?
This tool calculates net sales as gross sales less entered discounts and returns value. It then subtracts the product and variable order costs you provide, including the modeled return-handling effect, to estimate contribution. It does not include acquisition spend or fixed overhead, so the contribution figure is not business net profit. Different cost definitions produce different contribution figures.
Why might net sales increase while contribution falls?
Extra orders can carry product, fulfillment and return costs that outweigh the additional net sales. A discount change can also affect order volume. Check the per-order costs, return recovery assumption and each line of the contribution bridge. A negative contribution change means the scenario leaves less contribution than the baseline; it does not by itself mean the business makes a loss.
What is a good contribution margin ratio?
There is no single useful percentage for every fashion brand. Divide contribution by net sales to find the ratio for the costs included in this model, then compare like periods and the same cost definition. A positive ratio still needs to cover acquisition and fixed costs before the business reaches net profit. The entered costs and product mix matter more than a generic benchmark.
Do the period dates or Shopify CSV option change the calculation?
The dates label the completed period represented by your manual figures. Changing only the dates does not annualize, scale or forecast those figures. Shopify CSV import is coming soon and is unavailable in this version; use consistent manual online-store totals for now.
How does the calculator treat discounts and returns?
Discounts use a target share of gross sales plus the order-volume response you enter. Lowering discounts can therefore reduce orders rather than automatically recover every discount dollar. Returns use a target share of sales after discounts, with entered product-cost recovery and handling costs. The returns value may also include reversals without a physical item, so check that assumption before relying on the cost estimate.